AT RISK
Rating safety or slot safety does not clear yet — keep queueing.
slot reserve 15–15
AT RISK — -6 rating above the line; 15–15 slots inside; observed 24h slot-loss envelope 5 (central 2)
- current rating
- 2294
- target cutoff (DUELIST)
- 2300
- buffer
- -6
- needed gain (24h)
- +27
data 3d ago
See why — and how to close the gapSupporting evidence
Viewing the live decision.
AT RISK (Jul 8 · 18:00) — raw crossing: buffer fell below zero
AT RISK
Buffer does not clear the observed cutoff drift — keep queueing.
- Buffer is -6 against the published cutoff.
- Sitting out at the 24h horizon still needs +27 rating.
- raw crossing: buffer fell below zero
- your rating
- 2294
- cutoff now
- 2300
- buffer
- -6
- R_sit(24h)
- 2321 (+27 need)
if you log off for…
- 6h: 2309 (+15)
- 12h: 2313 (+19)
- 24h: 2321 (+27)
- 48h: 2337 (+43)
Why this state
Why the cutoff moved
The cutoff moved +16 since the last snapshot: players already above the line contributed +5, players pushing up from below contributed +11.
Advisory margin
Boundary churn
- at the cutoffΦ↑7 crossed up · Φ↓2 fell through
- at your ratingΦ↑3 crossed up · Φ↓4 fell through
Rating safety and slot safety
AT RISK — -6 rating above the line; 15–15 slots inside; observed 24h slot-loss envelope 5 (central 2)
Rating safety
- state
- AT RISK
- buffer
- -6
- R_sit need
- +27
- central buffer
- +4
Slot safety
- slot reserve interval
- 15–15
- observed slot-loss envelope
- 5
- typical slot-loss continuation
- 2
- m_slot
- 0
The river — you vs the cutoff
▲ a player crossed up over a line · ▼ the line was displaced past a player · right of NOW is the observed-drift scenario band
Where the line is going — DUELIST
- Central — assumes the cutoff keeps its trailing drift of 0.075 rating points per unit of a_cutoff activity (Theil–Sen over the trailing window), and the hour-of-week profile w(h) delivers the activity it usually delivers.inferred
- Conservative (R_sit) — assumes the cutoff climbs to the conservative envelope for this horizon — max-observed across 5 analog window(s), relaxing toward the library quantile — plus the safety margin m (+5). This is the R_sit line the four-state is decided on.inferred
- Worst observed — assumes the cutoff repeats the worst climb per unit of activity anywhere in the analog library (worst comparable 24h climb ever observed: +52 rating), applied to the activity w(h) expects over each horizon. No margin added — this is a fact about the past, not a bound on the future.inferred
What you need to hold, per horizon
First exposed horizon: 6h — sitting that long needs +15 more rating than you hold now.
How long your buffer lasts
- current conservative buffer
- -6
- erosion pace
- -2.1 / local activity hr
- buffer days (current regime)
- if the current locally observed erosion regime continues, your buffer days last ~0h equivalent activity
Queue to hold
Closing this +32 gap at your observed median pace (+4 net per game) is on the order of ~8 games — about 1 of your typical sessions (9 games each).
- gap to sit-safe (24h)
- +32
- your observed median pace
- +4 net per game
- estimated queueing
- ~8 games
- typical sessions
- ~1
A continuation of your observed median, not a promise — the count moves with every game you actually play.
Boundary tape
What changed while you were away
Nothing changed since your last session.