SAFE TO SIT
Rating and slot safety both clear — safe to stop queueing.
slot reserve 25–28
- current rating
- 2401
- target cutoff (GLADIATOR)
- 2380
- buffer
- +21
- needed gain (24h)
- -5
data 3d ago
See why you clear the lineSupporting evidence
Viewing the live decision.
SAFE TO SIT (Jul 8 · 18:00) — held SAFE TO SIT: 3 of 3 clean snapshots above Envelope(24h) + m_recovery
SAFE TO SIT
Buffer clears the observed cutoff drift — safe to stop queueing.
- Buffer is +21 against the published cutoff.
- Sitting out at the 24h horizon still needs -5 rating.
- held SAFE TO SIT: 3 of 3 clean snapshots above Envelope(24h) + m_recovery
- your rating
- 2401
- cutoff now
- 2380
- buffer
- +21
- R_sit(24h)
- 2396 (-5 need)
if you log off for…
- 6h: 2387 (-14)
- 12h: 2390 (-11)
- 24h: 2396 (-5)
- 48h: 2408 (+7)
Why this state
Why the cutoff moved
The cutoff moved -5 since the last snapshot: players already above the line contributed -14, players pushing up from below contributed +9.
Advisory margin
Boundary churn
- at the cutoffΦ↑4 crossed up · Φ↓3 fell through
- at your ratingΦ↑1 crossed up · Φ↓2 fell through
Rating safety and slot safety
Rating safety
- state
- SAFE TO SIT
- buffer
- +21
- R_sit need
- -5
- central buffer
- +16
Slot safety
- slot reserve interval
- 25–28
- observed slot-loss envelope
- 5
- typical slot-loss continuation
- 2
- m_slot
- 0
The river — you vs the cutoff
▲ a player crossed up over a line · ▼ the line was displaced past a player · right of NOW is the observed-drift scenario band
Where the line is going — GLADIATOR
- Central — assumes the cutoff keeps its trailing drift of 0.05 rating points per unit of a_cutoff activity (Theil–Sen over the trailing window), and the hour-of-week profile w(h) delivers the activity it usually delivers.inferred
- Conservative (R_sit) — assumes the cutoff climbs to the conservative envelope for this horizon — max-observed across 7 analog window(s), relaxing toward the library quantile — plus the safety margin m (+4). This is the R_sit line the four-state is decided on.inferred
- Worst observed — assumes the cutoff repeats the worst climb per unit of activity anywhere in the analog library (worst comparable 24h climb ever observed: +38 rating), applied to the activity w(h) expects over each horizon. No margin added — this is a fact about the past, not a bound on the future.inferred
What you need to hold, per horizon
First exposed horizon: 48h — sitting that long needs +7 more rating than you hold now.
How long your buffer lasts
- current conservative buffer
- +31
- erosion pace
- -4.8 / local activity hr
- buffer days (current regime)
- if the current locally observed erosion regime continues, your buffer days last ~14h equivalent activity
Queue to hold
No queueing needed for this horizon at the observed numbers — your rating already clears R_sit(24h) plus the 4-point safety cushion (by 1).
Boundary tape
What changed while you were away
changes since
- state transitionAT_RISK → SAFE_TO_SITheld SAFE TO SIT: 3 of 3 clean snapshots above Envelope(24h) + m_recovery
- cutoff moveC moved -5incumbent -14, population +9
- data qualitydata quality recoveredcoverage ok=true, stale=false
- new threatNewthreat is now reachableNewthreat entered your reachable band since your last session.
- threat quietQuietone went quietQuietone left your reachable band since your last session.
- envelope re-fitc-voidcaller envelope re-fitrung cohort → personal