Predictions & forecasting
The queue-up briefing: where the title line is going before tonight's games, what you would need to hold at every log-off horizon, and who below you is rising faster than their own record says they can. Every trajectory is a named assumption over observed data — the fan spreads because the assumptions differ, never because someone attached odds to them.
Before you queue
SAFE TO SIT · GLADIATOR · US 3v3
- line now
- 2380
- your buffer
- +21
- line at +24h (central)
- 2388 (+8)
- line at +24h (worst observed)
- 2396 (+16)
- first exposed horizon
- 48h (+7)
At the ladder the engine published, sitting through 48h needs +7 more rating than you hold — queueing before that horizon keeps the decision in your hands.
Where the line is going — GLADIATOR
- Central — assumes the cutoff keeps its trailing drift of 0.05 rating points per unit of a_cutoff activity (Theil–Sen over the trailing window), and the hour-of-week profile w(h) delivers the activity it usually delivers.inferred
- Conservative (R_sit) — assumes the cutoff climbs to the conservative envelope for this horizon — max-observed across 7 analog window(s), relaxing toward the library quantile — plus the safety margin m (+4). This is the R_sit line the four-state is decided on.inferred
- Worst observed — assumes the cutoff repeats the worst climb per unit of activity anywhere in the analog library (worst comparable 24h climb ever observed: +38 rating), applied to the activity w(h) expects over each horizon. No margin added — this is a fact about the past, not a bound on the future.inferred
What you need to hold, per horizon
First exposed horizon: 48h — sitting that long needs +7 more rating than you hold now.
Cutoff Runway — if you stop queueing now
Lock in your player (or type a rating) to draw the line closing the runway toward you.
Browse captured cutoff/inflation history on Ladder & Cutoffs →
Rising faster than expected
Each bar is a player's realized trailing-24h climb; the tick is their own observed clean 24h surge envelope. A bar past its tick is a player outclimbing their own record — worth a look before you queue.
| player | rating (gap) | 24h pace vs their envelope | regime | rung | if the observed pace continues | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Furyblade · Nightslayer | 2205 (-196) | +3 | INSIDE ENVELOPE | personal | If the observed 24h pace (+3) simply continues, the 196-point gap closes in ~65d. | open fingerprint |
| Voidcaller · Nightslayer | 2294 (-107) | +18 | INSIDE ENVELOPE | cohort | If the observed 24h pace (+18) simply continues, the 107-point gap closes in ~6d. | open fingerprint |
| Holypally · Nightslayer | 2240 (-161) | -10 | FLAT / COOLING | bracket | No forward motion observed over the trailing 24h. | open fingerprint |
| Shadowmend · Nightslayer | 2180 (-221) | +0 | UNASSESSED | unassessed | No surge envelope resolved for this player — unassessed is not the same as quiet. | open fingerprint |