DANGER
Rating safety or slot safety does not clear yet — keep queueing.
slot reserve 5–5
DANGER — -30 rating above the line; 5–5 slots inside; observed 24h slot-loss envelope 3 (central 1)
- current rating
- 2240
- target cutoff (RIVAL)
- 2270
- buffer
- -30
- needed gain (24h)
- +51
data 3d ago
See why — and how to close the gapSupporting evidence
Viewing the live decision.
DANGER (Jul 8 · 18:00) — raw crossing: buffer fell below negative Envelope(24h)
DANGER
Buffer does not clear the observed cutoff drift — keep queueing.
- Buffer is -30 against the published cutoff.
- Sitting out at the 24h horizon still needs +51 rating.
- raw crossing: buffer fell below negative Envelope(24h)
- your rating
- 2240
- cutoff now
- 2270
- buffer
- -30
- R_sit(24h)
- 2291 (+51 need)
if you log off for…
- 6h: 2279 (+39)
- 12h: 2283 (+43)
- 24h: 2291 (+51)
- 48h: 2307 (+67)
Why this state
Why the cutoff moved
The cutoff moved +30 since the last snapshot: players already above the line contributed +18, players pushing up from below contributed +12.
Advisory margin
Boundary churn
- at the cutoffΦ↑9 crossed up · Φ↓1 fell through
- at your ratingΦ↑1 crossed up · Φ↓6 fell through
Rating safety and slot safety
DANGER — -30 rating above the line; 5–5 slots inside; observed 24h slot-loss envelope 3 (central 1)
Rating safety
- state
- DANGER
- buffer
- -30
- R_sit need
- +51
- central buffer
- -5
Slot safety
- slot reserve interval
- 5–5
- observed slot-loss envelope
- 3
- typical slot-loss continuation
- 1
- m_slot
- 0
INSUFFICIENT DATA
No cutoff series has been computed for this watch yet.
Where the line is going — RIVAL
- Central — assumes the cutoff keeps its trailing drift of 0.1 rating points per unit of a_cutoff activity (Theil–Sen over the trailing window), and the hour-of-week profile w(h) delivers the activity it usually delivers.inferred
- Conservative (R_sit) — assumes the cutoff climbs to the conservative envelope for this horizon — max-observed across 4 analog window(s), relaxing toward the library quantile — plus the safety margin m (+5). This is the R_sit line the four-state is decided on.inferred
- Worst observed — assumes the cutoff repeats the worst climb per unit of activity anywhere in the analog library (worst comparable 24h climb ever observed: +44 rating), applied to the activity w(h) expects over each horizon. No margin added — this is a fact about the past, not a bound on the future.inferred
What you need to hold, per horizon
First exposed horizon: 6h — sitting that long needs +39 more rating than you hold now.
How long your buffer lasts
- current conservative buffer
- +12
- erosion pace
- +3.4 / local activity hr
- buffer days (current regime)
- if the current locally observed erosion regime continues, there is no erosion bound to project buffer days from yet
Queue to hold
INSUFFICIENT DATA
Observed median pace is not positive (-3 net per game) — at that observed trend more games do not close the gap, so no game count is stated.
The +56 gap to sit-safe at 24h is still published fact — only the game count is refused until an observed pace exists to count with.
Boundary tape
What changed while you were away
Nothing changed since your last session.